Yen Technical Outlook

The 61.8% of 110.71-87.09 at 101 has held as USDJPY resistance. The next level of potential resistance is a resistance line drawn off of the July 2007 and August 2008 highs. That line is at 103.55 this week and decreases about 20 pips per week. However, with price trading below a parallel support line AND COT data warning of a sentiment extreme, it is worth punting on a short against 100.76. The long term trend remains down and I am looking for a resumption of that trend. The downside potential is significant.